Evolution of the South China Sea Dispute in the China – Asean Member States – USA Triangle

Abstract

The article considers the historical development of the situation in the South China Sea in the XX-early XXI century. The issue of the South China Sea is covered through the prism of China-ASEAN-US cooperation. Two levels of interaction have been identified: 1) territorial disputes between China and the countries of Southeast Asia region, primarily in the format of confrontation between China-Vietnam and China-Philippines; 2) active involvement of the US in the sub region since 2009 and the formation of a new axis of counteraction between China and the United States (Taiwan issue, the military defense sphere of relations between the United States and its allies and Southeast Asia, and the problem of free navigation in the sea).

The chronology of aggravation of the situation in the South China Sea, a number of incidents and rhetoric between states under the influence of such conflict are considered. The authors conclude that the situation in the South China Sea is cyclical, which is manifested in its permanent aggravation due to Chinese pressure and its unshakable position on sole ownership of this space (despite the International Court of Justice ruling) and the transfer of this space to confrontation between China and the United States, in which the ASEAN member states should pursue a more flexible policy – to defend their interests, but not to aggravate relations with China, which is an important trading partner.

Under the Trump administration, the United States has begun to put more pressure on China, for instance, Washington’s support for ASEAN member states in 2020 and economic pressure on Beijing can be described as a new cycle of conflict. As a result, ASEAN member states, being the main actors in the sub region, given the opposition of China-US competition for global leadership and the national interests of these world powers, may increasingly become the objects of confrontation in the region, given the balance of power in international relations global pandemic.