The Russian Factor in Turkey’s Foreign Policy Towards Ukraine in the First Stage of the Russian-Ukrainian War (2014-2021)
Abstract
The article analyses Russia’s historical influence on the foreign policy of the Republic of Turkey and Ukrainian-Turkish relations during 2014-2021. This period marks the first stage of the Russian Federation’s recent military intervention in Ukraine, which has led to significant changes in the system of international relations, economy and security at the regional and global levels. The article takes into account the experience of communication between Ukraine and Turkey as regional centres of influence, as well as the interaction between Turkey and Russia in the region.
It is noted that at the beginning of the 21st century, Russia and Turkey, historically two competing powers in the Black Sea region, began to seek new forms of interaction and cooperation based on energy interests in supplying Russian gas and oil to Europe and the Middle East through Turkish territory. This was facilitated by changes in Turkey’s foreign policy in the second half of the 2010s, which consisted of a gradual distancing from the West and an attempt to achieve strategic autonomy while remaining a member of NATO. These efforts led to Turkey’s energy dependence on Russian energy sources and, accordingly, to a more pro-Russian policy on the part of the Turkish leadership. The historically complex relations in the Turkey-Russia-Ukraine triangle became particularly acute in 2014 after Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Turkey’s foreign policy of balancing has posed both threats and opportunities for Ukrainian-Turkish relations. Through its active energy cooperation with Russia during the first phase of the modern Russian-Ukrainian war, Turkey actually contributed to the further strengthening of Putin’s regime and the economic foundation of its military potential, which was later fully exploited in the full-scale war against Ukraine. At the same time, Turkey’s foreign policy balancing act between the West and the East made it possible to initiate and develop Ukrainian-Turkish military-technical cooperation and humanitarian contacts, expand economic cooperation, and use Ankara’s official capacity as a mediator between the parties to the conflict in Ukraine and a platform for peace talks.
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